Harmonized scenario assumptions
To increase the comparability of the modeling results we aim at harmonizing the general trends in the development of the economy and the energy system: population, economic growth potentials, energy demand and conditions on the world markets for fossil fuels. The idea is to calibrate baseline developments (GDP and energy demand) to the following scenario description.
Scenario drivers
| 2010 | 2020 | 2035 | 20502 | Reference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 7.79 | 8.68 | 9.80 | 10.30 | BFS Scenario A-00-2015 |
| Working population (million full time equivalents) | 3.853 | 4.31 | 4.58 | 4.63 | BFS Scenario A-00-2015 |
| Crude oil price ($2010/barrel)4 | 78 | 105 | 120 | 129 | 2010 value: 2011 IEA World Energy Outlook Projections: 4DS scenario in 2015 IEA Energy technology Perspectives |
| Gas price ($2010/MBtu) | 7.5 | 10.4 | 11.7 | 12.4 | |
| EU electricity price (Euro2013/MWh) | 133 | 150 | 160 | 159 | EU Reference Scenario 2016: EU Energy, Transport and GHG emissions - Trends to 2050 |
| Cooling degree day5 | 120 | 235 | 280 | "Klima Wärmer" scenario in BFE 2050 Energy Perspectives, pp. 80-81 | |
| Heating degree day5 | 3586 | 3002* | 2831** |
1 Variables for periods between those indicated can be derived by linear interpolation
2 Models that include time periods beyond 2050 will make individual developments beyond 2050 consistent with trends up to 2050.
3 2009 value
4 Crude oil projections do not reflect current low market prices. Our projections assume that the latter are an anomaly that will be corrected in the long run.
5 Assuming: (1) 2035: A temperature increase in the winter months September-May of 1℃ and in
the summer months June-August of 2℃; (2) 2050: A temperature increase in the winter months October-April of 1.5℃, in the summer months June-August of 2.5C, and in May and September of 2℃
* 12% increase from the 1984-2002 average
** 17% increase from the 1984-2002 average
Business as usual (BAU) scenario
The BAU scenario is calibrated to the harmonized scenario drivers and the following GDP and demands:
| 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2035 | 20502 | Reference | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP potential3 (relative to 2010) | Ref | 1 | 1.046 | 1.18 | 1.43 | 1.66 | Calibration years: BFS, Gross domestic product: expenditure approach, Table 3b Projections from: SECO 2015 |
| High | 1 | 1.046 | 1.23 | 1.58 | 1.86 | SimLab | |
| Energy demand (relative to 2010) | Ref | 1 | 0.92 | 0.937 | 0.839 | 0.782 | BAU (WWB) scenario from BFE 2050 Energy Perspectives (p. 96) |
| High | 1 | 0.92 | 0.969 | 0.894 | 0.856 | SimLab | |
| Electricity demand (relative to 2010) | Ref | 1 | 0.996 | 1.05 | 1.097 | 1.175 | BAU (WWB) scenario from BFE 2050 Energy Perspectives (p. 96) |
| High | 1 | 0.996 | 1.08 | 1.17 | 1.25 | SimLab | |
| Fossil energy demand by ETS sectors (relative to 2010) | Ref | 1 | 0.876* | 0.858 | 0.621 | 0.388 | Simlab |
| High | 1 | 0.876* | 0.861 | 0.626 | 0.395 | Simlab |
In the policy dimension, BAU scenarios should be calibrated to following existing policies:
| 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2035 | 20502 | Reference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO2 tax on thermal fuels (CHF/tCO2) | 36 | 60 | 120 | 120 | 120 | CO2 Ordinance, Chapter 8: CO2 Levy |
| CO2 tax on motor fuels (CHF/tCO2) | 0 | CO2 Ordinance | ||||
| Permit price in Swiss ETS (2010 USD/tCO2) | N/A | Free** | ||||
| Cap in emissions of Swiss ETS relative to 2013 levels | N/A | 0.966 | 0.884 | 0.680 | 0.522 | The cap is computed using a yearly reduction factor of 1.74% used in the EU ETS until 2020 |
1 Variables for periods between those indicated can be derived by linear interpolation
2 Models that include time periods beyond 2050 will make individual developments beyond 2050 consistent with trends up to 2050.
3 Models shall make individual assumptions about labor productivity that are in line with the GDP projections given by SEMP.
* Simlab estimate
** In BAU, the Swiss ETS is active but not coupled with the EU ETS. With trends in fossil fuel demand by ETS sectors described in
Table Harmonized drivers in the BAU scenario, the cap of the CH ETS will be overshot.
In order to limit emissions to the CH ETS cap, assume that emissions implied by demand trends in Table Harmonized drivers in the BAU scenario
are achieved at permit prices according to Table EU ETS permit price and endogenously determine the Swiss ETS permit price by applying the cap in the fourth row of this table.
Technologies
| Technology | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Nuclear | Nuclear power plants are phased out by 2034 according to expectations about the live span of the power plants currently in operation |
| CCS | No CCS until 2030. After 2030, models may make their own assumptions about CCS and report them. |
Renewable resources
We analyze two cases: a default case where the modeling teams use their usual assumptions and a low case with limited potentials of renewables:
| Scenario | Renewable | 2010 | 2020 | 2035 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Default | All renewables | Free choice | |||
| Low | Wind (TWh) | 0.0366 | 0.3 | 1 | 2 |
| Solar (TWh) | 0.0936 | 1.5 | 2 | 5 | |
| Biomass (TWh) | 0.18 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
| Biomass (percent of fuel mix in total primary energy) | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | |
| Geothermal (TWh) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Other assumptions
For all the other modelling assumptions (elasticities of substitution, technology characteristics, etc.) each participating model uses its own data.
Currency
The currency of the 1st SEMP is CHF2010.
| Dollars | The 2010 exchange rate between USD and CHF was approximately 1 and shall be assumed to remain constant | ||||||||||||||||
| Euros | The exchange rate between CHF and EUR was approx. 0.75 in 2010 and 0.93 in 2015 and shall be assumed to remain constant after that | ||||||||||||||||
| Deflator | Consumer prices index (the difference between the CPI and the GDP deflator is less than 0.75%). Taken from the Swiss Statistics, CHF2010 = 100:
|