Emission targets
We consider two emissions targets frequently mentioned in Swiss policy papers: 1.0 tCO2e and the 1.5 tCO2e per capita. Given SEMP's assumptions about the Swiss population in 2050, both targets lie well within the range of 15-30 percent of Swiss emissions in 1990, the range of emission levels identified as the Swiss targets in its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC).
The following Table presents the GHG targets and the consequences on energy demand and electricity demand. Each model is asked to consider the most general target it can represent for its policy scenarios and compute more specific demands endogenously.
| Target | 2010 | 2020 | 2035 | 2050 | Reference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GHG or CO2* emissions relative to 2010 levels: GHG without LULUCF: 54.37 Mt CO2e; Total CO2 without LULUCF: 45.027 Mt CO2 Total Energy CO2: 42.603 Mt CO2 |
1.5 tCO2e | 1 | 0.849 | 0.571 | 0.284 | Emission levels in 2010 taken from the GHG Inventory 1990-2014 (Updated CRF tables 2016) |
| 1.0 tCO2e | 1 | 0.824 | 0.510 | 0.189 | ||
| Electricity demand (relative to 2010) | 1 | 0.975 | 0.9375 | 0.9 | Prognos (2012) 2050 Energy Strategy | |
| Total energy demand (relative to 2010) | 1 | 0.873 | 0.653 | 0.536 | Prognos (2012) 2050 Energy Strategy |
*Given that not all models cover (all) GHG emissions, these targets are translated into CO2-only emission targets for models that consider CO2 only.
Important assumptions
- All emission targets must be met in the respective years and no banking or borrowing of emission allowances between periods is permitted.
- Emissions from international aviation are not included.
- After 2050: Models running beyond 2050 shall make individual assumptions about a reasonable continuation of climate policy and report their assumptions.